The countries participating in COP28 in Dubai reached a compromise around a “transition away from fossil fuels”. Although this is an important diplomatic step forward, its interpretation and implementation will be more complex, as the situations of producing countries are different and directly linked to consuming countries. The progress of this COP served as a reminder of how international climate negotiations are a difficult exercise, particularly because they involve countries with unequal levels of development and different historical responsibilities.
The approach of the Kyoto Protocol separating countries into two categories, those in Annex 1 (including the OECD countries – except South Korea and Mexico – and the so-called “transition” countries) and the others , and setting only the first binding objectives was a failure after the withdrawal of the United States. It gave way to a non-binding approach involving all parties to achieve the Paris agreement ratified at COP21.
We agree that the categorization of the Kyoto Protocol is now obsolete and that it no longer makes sense to classify the United Arab Emirates, China or Mali together, but we believe that it would nevertheless be relevant and fairer to Return to a categorization of countries on the basis of numerical criteria, which are therefore difficult to contest.
Three groups
An approach integrating relevant data on the level of development, such as the human development index (HDI), and on carbon impact, such as emissions based on consumption per capita (i.e. national emissions selected by taking into account of international trade), could allow us to form several categories of countries. The relationship between the variables takes the form of a “champagne curve” (like champagne squirting from a bottle after sabering), with a tightening at the start of development then gradually spreading out – signifying consumption of CO2 different per capita – beyond a certain level of development.
Countries with a low HDI (below 0.6) − such as Ethiopia or Nigeria (an oil producer) − have homogenous emissions based on per capita consumption, unlike countries with a higher HDI (at – beyond 0.8) − like the United States, France or Switzerland −, where they are very heterogeneous. Between 0.6 and 0.8, it is the political choices of States in terms of energy production and transport which will determine their carbon footprint as rich countries. Consequently, we propose to classify countries into three groups: low, medium and high adaptive capacity.
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