US and Ukraine Unable to Agree on Mineral Deal

Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal

On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.

Prior to the meeting, Zelensky had shown optimism, suggesting this “initial” agreement might lead to expanded collaboration. However, he acknowledged that Ukraine still needed to obtain security assurances from the US, which was a major point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the assistance given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that European nations should primarily handle Kyiv’s security needs.

Details of the Agreement Terms

On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv and Washington had finalized a draft of the agreement, which was released on Friday morning. The deal outlined the creation of an “investment fund” to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.

Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.

The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.

Conflicts Regarding Mineral Rights and Financial Conditions

Tensions between Trump and Zelensky appear to have escalated over the specific terms of the minerals deal. Initially, the US sought a $500 billion claim on Ukraine’s mineral wealth, a demand that Zelensky rejected. Reports indicate that this request was later withdrawn.

According to Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Washington initially proposed an arrangement that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty and would have led to economic collapse. However, he noted that the US has since revised its approach, now offering a more balanced deal based on co-ownership, without direct claims on past aid. This, he argued, could ultimately benefit Ukraine.

Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, mentioning on Tuesday that the US has given $300 billion to $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, suggesting that a minerals agreement might help reclaim these funds. Nonetheless, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US assistance totals $119 billion.

Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?

A central sticking point for Zelensky has been the inclusion of explicit security guarantees from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that no such guarantees had been secured.

“I wanted a clause on security guarantees for Ukraine because it is crucial,” Zelensky stated.

When asked whether he would abandon the agreement if security assurances were not provided, he responded: “I want to secure a NATO path or something similar. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will function.”

Even though there are no direct security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security assurances to secure enduring peace.

Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”

Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”

The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.

When Is the Agreement Expected to Be Signed?

Trump initially announced that the agreement would be finalized during Friday’s White House meeting. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal verified that the final draft of the agreement was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was meant to be signed.

No agreement was signed, though. Instead, the meeting escalated into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one juncture, an irate Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US aid and cautioned that he was “risking World War Three.”

“You need to finalize a deal, or we’re done,” Trump allegedly told Zelensky. “You lack leverage.”

In reply, Zelensky emphasized that “no compromises” could be made with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Shortly afterward—well ahead of schedule—Zelensky left the White House. The White House then announced that the deal had not been finalized, with Trump himself canceling the signing ceremony.

Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and declaring: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”

Currently, it is uncertain if or when the agreement will be executed.

Ukraine’s Rich Mineral Resources

Kyiv estimates that Ukraine possesses about 5% of the world’s “essential raw materials.” This encompasses roughly 19 million metric tons of verified graphite deposits, ranking Ukraine among the top five suppliers globally of this mineral, which is vital for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.

Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.

Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.

A further challenge to mineral extraction is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that approximately 25% of Ukraine’s terrain is affected, especially in the conflict-ravaged eastern areas.

There is also the issue of time. Even if the agreement is finalized, it could take years before the extraction and export of these resources yield tangible economic benefits.

“These resources aren’t stored in a warehouse ready for delivery—they require development,” Mylovanov commented. “US investment could eventually be advantageous for all involved.”

What Has Been Russia’s Response?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on the reported details of the US-Ukraine deal. However, on Monday, he told Russian state television that Moscow is prepared to “offer” mineral resources to American companies for joint ventures, including mining in Russia’s “new territories”—a reference to occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.

Putin dismissed the potential US-Ukraine deal as insignificant, stating that Russia “undoubtedly has, I want to emphasize, significantly more of these resources than Ukraine.”

“As for the new territories, we are ready to attract foreign partners to develop these regions, which have returned to the Russian Federation,” he added.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday that the situation remains fluid: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”