The main reason why nine weeks of intense Israeli bombing of Gaza has not driven hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into Egypt is that country’s heavily fortified border and Cairo’s fierce determination to keep it closed.
But the pressure is increasing. Israel has been relentlessly pushing Gaza’s 2.2 million residents south as its forces seek to destroy Hamas’s military wing and its infrastructure, and around 85 percent of the population has been displaced. Hundreds of thousands of displaced people now live in squalid, overcrowded conditions in Rafah, the southernmost region of Gaza, just along the border with Egypt.
The grim conditions have raised fears that the border with Egypt could be breached, allowing large numbers of Palestinian refugees to enter Egypt, potentially destabilizing an Arab ally of the United States.
Israeli officials have said they have no intention of pushing Gazans into Egypt, and Egypt’s government has long opposed allowing Gazans to seek refuge in the Sinai Peninsula, fearing that Israel would never allow them. will allow them to return to their homes and that Hamas and other militant groups, no longer friends of the government in Cairo, could establish operations there.
Satellite images released this week highlight the number of people near the border, showing a large number of makeshift shelters in the Tel al-Sultan area in the Rafah region. Comparisons with photographs of the same area taken last month show that the density of displaced Gazans has skyrocketed since Israel began issuing evacuation orders this month for parts of Khan Younis, a larger city six miles to the north. .
The images correspond to reports from aid organization officials, who have warned that southern Gaza is not equipped to provide even basic services to the hundreds of thousands of displaced people who have ended up there.
Northwest side of the Tel al-Sultan neighborhood
of Rafah before the ceasefire
After the extension of evacuation orders
around Khan Yunis
2000 feet
to the border
with egypt
Northeast side of the Tel al-Sultan neighborhood
of Rafah before the ceasefire
After the extension of evacuation orders
around Khan Yunis
1.3 miles
to the border
with egypt
Northwest side of Tel al-Sultan
rafah neighborhood
before the ceasefire
After the expansion of
evacuation orders
around Khan Yunis
2000 feet
to the border
with egypt
Northeast side of Tel al-Sultan
rafah neighborhood
before the ceasefire
After the expansion of
evacuation orders
around Khan Yunis
1.3 miles
to the border
with egypt
Many people have only crude, makeshift shelters to protect them from the elements as winter approaches, and every day is a struggle to get adequate food and clean water. Bathrooms are scarce. Although Rafah is one of the few Gaza cities that has received aid shipments in recent weeks, hunger and communicable diseases are still spreading rapidly, aid groups and U.N. officials say.
Israel launched its bombings and ground invasion after Hamas, which has ruled Gaza for 16 years, carried out a surprise attack on cities in southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians. Since then, at least 15,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli airstrikes and other military operations in Gaza, according to Gaza health officials.
At the beginning of the war, Israel declared the entire northern half of Gaza an evacuation zone, sending people south where they thought they would be safe. Israel then ordered the evacuation of parts of the south as well, forcing many people who had already fled the north to move again.
Rafah was home to a few hundred thousand people before the war, and its population has exploded in recent weeks. People fleeing the air campaign in the north arrived early in the war, even though Israel has also continued to bomb targets in Rafah. Tens of thousands more have arrived this month, aid groups say, grouping together the areas of Tel al-Sultan and al-Mawasi, further west on the Mediterranean coast.
The long history of Palestinians displaced during its 75-year conflict with Israel has left its leaders and Arab neighbors worried that an exodus of Gazans to Egypt will become permanent.
To protect itself from such a scenario and prevent an influx of Hamas and other Gaza militants, Egypt has spent years fortifying its seven-and-a-half-mile border with Gaza.
Over the past decade, Egyptian forces have flooded and destroyed a network of smuggling tunnels under the border and reinforced the barrier along it. In some places, that barrier now consists of an imposing metal wall with a fence on top to prevent people from climbing over it, as well as underground barriers to prevent the digging of new tunnels.
Between 2013 and 2015, Egypt also evicted thousands of people from their homes and destroyed more than 3,000 structures along its side of the border to create a buffer zone, according to a report from Human Rights Watch. Since the current war began, the Egyptian military has added more fortifications, erecting sand barriers and parking tanks and other military vehicles near the border, according to local residents.
At the same time, on the Gaza side, Hamas, whose militants are busy fighting Israel, has largely abandoned border security.
So far, Egypt’s fortifications appear to be strong enough to prevent Gazans from crossing the border. But security at the crossing is tight and a large angry crowd could pass through, according to people who have passed through the crossing recently. Another risk is that new holes will be opened in the barrier, either by errant attacks by Israel or by militants or Gaza residents with explosives looking for a way out.
This is not without precedent. In 2008, Hamas punched holes in the barrier and tens of thousands of Gazans rushed through, using their visit to stock up on everything from cigarettes to satellite dishes before returning to their besieged territory.
Lauren Leatherby contributed reports.
